“We cannot see the future, but we can see the past.”
It is important to note that seasonality is not the holy grail. It is not a rule nor does it predict the future. It does not guarantee that what happened in the past will happen in the future. It does provide a valuable viewpoint of average given moves over a period of time in history. It is not a tool on its own, however, by using this information along with basic technical analysis, risk management and a dash of common sense, it can produce a powerful and unbiased approach across a variety of markets.
The Journal of Finance says “Stocks tend to have relatively high (or low) returns every year in the same calendar month. The pattern is independent of size, industry, earnings announcements, dividends, and fiscal year. The results are consistent with the existence of a persistent seasonal effect in stock returns.” Journal of Finance 45:881-898,1990
Commodity futures markets are cyclical in nature and are very supply/demand driven due to growing and planting seasons, cycles and trends in consumption, weather, crop harvesting, as well as global storage and shipping operations.
Currencies, or the foreign exchange market is the largest of all markets combined. Large amounts of money exchange hands globally across governments, central banks, institutions, corporations, and hedge fund managers. These markets can too follow reliable seasonal patterns that can be attributed to economic cycles, holidays, fiscal policy, tax seasons, and fund flow to due security purchases and sells.
SeasonalSwingTrader identifies historical seasonal trends and market cycles on up to 40+ years of historical market data and delivers quality, actionable trade ideas each and every week across stocks, ETF's, commodities, and currencies.
SeasonalSwingTrader gives you advance warning of our ideas, so you can continue to be a proactive and strategic trader.