“We cannot see the future, but we can see the past.”
It is important to note that seasonality is not the holy
grail. It is not a rule nor does it
predict the future. It does not
guarantee that what happened in the past will happen in the future. It does provide a valuable viewpoint of average
given moves over a period of time in history.
It is not a tool on its own, however, by using this information along
with basic technical analysis, risk management and a dash of common sense, it
can produce a powerful and unbiased approach across a variety of markets.
The Journal of Finance says “Stocks tend to have relatively high
(or low) returns every year in the same calendar month. The pattern is independent of size, industry,
earnings announcements, dividends, and fiscal year. The results are consistent with the
existence of a persistent seasonal effect in stock returns.” Journal of Finance
Commodity futures markets are cyclical in nature and are very
supply/demand driven due to growing and planting seasons, cycles and trends in
consumption, weather, crop harvesting, as well as global storage and shipping
Currencies, or the foreign exchange market is the largest of all
markets combined. Large amounts of
money exchange hands globally across governments, central banks, institutions,
corporations, and hedge fund managers. These
markets can too follow reliable seasonal patterns that can be attributed to
economic cycles, holidays, fiscal policy, tax seasons, and fund flow to due
security purchases and sells.
identifies historical seasonal trends and market cycles on up to 40+ years of
historical market data and delivers quality, actionable trade ideas that put
probability in your favor. Historical
analysis combined with historically reliable chart patterns can help put the
odds in your favor.
SeasonalSwingTrader gives you advance warning of our alerts, so you
can continue to be a proactive and strategic trader.